New Mexico has a history of voting for both Democrat and Republican presidents, with Democrats winning 15 times and Republicans winning 12 times since becoming a state. In recent elections, the state has tended to lean Democratic, with Democrats winning the state in the last four presidential elections. The trend towards Democrats is attributed to increasing support from Latinos. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, the state had close races with George W. Bush, with Democratic nominee Al Gore winning by a few hundred votes in 2000, and Bush winning by nearly 6,000 votes in 2004.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, New Mexico is predicted to go to Vice President Kamala Harris, with polls indicating a similar margin as when President Biden won by 11% in 2020. New Mexico’s five electoral votes are important in the overall balance of power in the election. The state’s second congressional district is also closely watched, with a rematch between incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell. The balance of power in the House and Senate is up for grabs, with key swing districts that could impact the majority party in Congress. West Virginia is expected to be a Republican pickup in the Senate, further highlighting the importance of each state’s votes in the election.
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